Using the Scenario Method to Predict the Returns and Financial Risks of Companies Listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange

Abstract

This study sought to demonstrate the extent to which it is possible to predict the returns and risks of companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. The study sample included five companies for the period 2015-2023. The study was based on a problem faced by most investors in financial markets: uncertainty, or the inability to predict the returns and risks of securities. This uncertainty remains controversial in terms of the models used and the many technical analysis methods. It is also an important topic for guiding investor decisions through optimal investment decisions. Hence, the study sought to employ modern forecasting models, most notably the scenario approach, to predict returns and risks for companies. The study used descriptive methods and scenario modeling to arrive at the best forecasting model. The study concluded that the scenario approach is an appropriate method for predicting returns and risks, arriving at the best investment model and assisting investors in making better investment decisions by reducing uncertainty in the future.